For Site Owner’s Review Purposes Only
The “Closed” prediction indicates that we either do not hold any views on the trade any more or we were wrong about our prediction.
WTI Crude Oil (Closed): Bearish on WTI Crude Oil at $54.40 (April Contract, previously March contract at $52.50) for the next three months as of February 23, 2017. Target: $49, Stop: $56.00.Term: Three Months, Reward to risk: 3.4:1. (Link) We closed our bearish view on Crude Oil for the next three months with target at $49.00 reached as of March 15, 2017. The reward to risk of the trade was 3.4:1. We were spot on in terms of the timing, direction and how different factors unfolded and reinforced with each other.
S&P 500 (Closed): Bearish on S&P 500 at 1921 for the next 6-12 months as of February 24, 2016 (Link). Fed is likely to hike one to two times this year, but not zero times as the market is currently projecting. We closed our prediction on S&P 500 at 2,396. We were very much wrong on the direction of S&P 500 and the bearish call on it.
USD/CNH, Trade-Weighted Dollar Index: long term Bullish on USD/CNH at 6.62 as of February 2, 2016. Long term Bullish on trade-weighted dollar index at 125 (Link).
WTI Crude Oil (Closed): Bullish on WTI Crude Oil at $41.85 for the next one to three months as of August 17, 2015. We closed our prediction on WTI Crude Oil at $49.50, as of 10/12/2015 (Link).
Chinese A Shares CSI 300 (Closed): Bullish over the next three to six months at 3,886, as of July 5, 2015. (Link). We closed our prediction on Chinese A Shares CSI 300 at 3,731 as of December 31, 2015. We were wrong on the prediction, as the Chinese government was not successful in saving the equity markets and the fiscal stimulus plans were limited to boost the economy as well.
S&P 500 (Closed): neutral in 2015 at 2,112, expect the rate hike to happen in December 2015, as of June 1, 2015. The Fed might find itself having difficulty raising the rates a lot without doing much damage to the economy (Link). We closed our prediction on S&P 500 at 2,043.94 as of 12/31/2015, -3.33% difference from our prediction. The Fed did hike in December 2015, which is exactly what we predicted.
Gold (Closed): short term Neutral/Bearish at $1,200, long Term Bullish as of 03/02/2015 (Link). We have also mentioned in the research that we didn’t think the U.S. Dollar has too much upside to run at 95.46, as of 03/02/2015. We closed our bullish prediction on gold as of November 17, 2016. We were largely right on the prediction being short term neutral/bearish and long term bullish since March 2015 when we initiated the view, as Gold went from $1,200 to 1,050 in November 2015, then to $1,360 in August 2016.
Natural Gas (Closed): Short term Neutral/Bearish, long term Bullish at $2.66, as of 02/04/15 (Link). We closed our short-term Neutral/Bearish, long term Bullish forecast at $3.72 per mmBtu as of December 27, 2016. We were largely correct on the direction of the prediction as Natural gas dipped to $1.60 per mmBtu in March 2016 and has more than doubled since then.
USD/MXN (Closed): short to medium term Bullish at 14.7336 as of 12/28/2014 (Link) We closed our prediction on USD/MXN at 16.11, as of 08/01/2015.
Short Shanghai Index and Long Hang Seng Index: Reward to risk might not be attractive enough for the trade during the short term as of 11/30/2014; watch out for further stimulus support and lower interest rate around or before the Chinese New Year, as of 11/30/2014. (Link)
Copper (Closed): short term Neutral, long term Bearish at $3.05 per pound as of 11/08/2014 (Link). We closed our prediction on copper at $2.3240 per pound, as of 08/09/2015.
USD/JPY (Closed): Bullish (depreciation of Yen against Dollar) within the near term future at 108.94, as of 09/21/2014 (Link) We closed our prediction on USD/JPY at 123.42, as of 06/12/2015.
Irish Real Estate: long term Bullish as of 09/11/2014 (Link)
S&P 500 and VIX (Closed): Bearish on S&P 500 (expecting a major correction after or sometime before the Fed exits the current QE program) and Bullish on VIX (towards the end of the taper). (Link)
Fed is likely to bring back the QE after negative economic fundamentals hit expectations without QE support, as of 06/29/2014 (Link); we realized that we were wrong about the 2015 prediction on S&P 500 and VIX as of 06/01/2015 (Link)